Outlook On the Next Few Weeks

I’m predicting April to be a big month for ETH.

ETH currently sits at $370 after bouncing this morning, almost touching the relative low of this bear run at $360.

It doesn’t feel like we’ve hit bottom yet, but I think it’s coming soon.


I feel that $360/$350 won’t hold, and as BTC breaks below $6000 we’ll see lower $300s ETH later next week.  That said – I’m not trading any of this at all.  After the tax man – trust me – wait 1 year to qualify for long-term capital gains.

One of my main theories about this latest crash was around the timing with US “Tax Day” and the situation it was putting a lot of people who had to report massive gains in 2017, and have massive losses so far in 2018.

Yesterday Bloomberg published an article talking about just how much this could be impacting this latest market pullback – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-05/crypto-rout-driven-by-25-billion-capital-gain-hit-tom-lee-says

US Tax Day is the 17th – I think the recovery starts a few days before.  Other people are predicting this recovery as well and usually movements start slightly before expected.

I think recovery is sharp, with $500 being broken and into the $600s before the end of the month.  I’ve also been predicting ETH to have a big summer, reaching towards – if not past – the ATH from January.  My end of year price is still ~$3K.

If this is bottom – or close to bottom – the upside here is ridiculous.

In the poker analogy, the “pot odds / implied odds” of putting money into this “ETH pot” are astronomical.  It’s easier to think through if you’re playing a zero-sum game like poker.

You have 100 chips.  Somebody pushes all-in.  You have a 25% chance of winning the pot.  Do you call?  That entirely depends on the pot size.  If the pot is only 100 chips – calling 100 chips with a 25% chance is dumb.  But if it was 1000 chips in the pot, it’s an easy call.

That’s my advice on how people should approach crypto investing – a high risk bet with a potential 100% loss outcome.

Disclaimer – I could be completely wrong  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
(but I still argue it’s a smart bet in a zero sum game)