I’d always imagined that I’d start this blog during a bull market. WRONG!
In the first two weeks of January ETH exploded all the way up to $1400.
Since then – barely more than 2 months later – ETH is down more than 66%, currently down to $470.
It’s been hard watching Ethereum’s price tumble over these past 2 months. As the chart above illustrates, there have been micro “recoveries” and fake-outs along the way. It’s clear this bear market is for real. But why?
Nothing changed fundamentally with Ethereum. In fact, Ethereum’s development is going ahead of schedule.
So why has the price crashed so much? When – if ever – will it stop? WTF is going on?
Manipulation & Whale Games
I think we’re dealing with a highly manipulated market, perfect conditions for whales to feast. In crypto, new money is always tested. The people buying Ethereum over the past 3 months are all in the red. These are SUPER SMART PEOPLE who are taking a chance investing in a highly speculative technology. Yet they have that seem feeling in their stomachs the idiots who bought TRON do.
What we’re seeing is the weak hands being shook, combined with the smart money (hi goldman sachs) coming in. This latest bear market is creating a one-in-a-lifetime opportunity for smart investors to get in at a reasonable price.
Smart Money is Coming In
The investment banks / hedge fund money has turned the corner. They are the ones accumulating now. This is happening.
Are they down right now? Quite possibly. After all, anybody who has bought in the last 3 months is down. But the floor is being created, and it has springs.
It’s my opinion that they are accumulating HEAVY at these levels – setting up a foundation to push the price higher during the next surge.
This is still just the 2nd innning – the smart money knows this.
OK… but when’s the bottom?
It’s scary to buy an asset that is “plummeting.” Further supporting this FOMB (fear of missing bottom) is the historical data from Bitcoin. I mean, check out Bitcoin’s crash after it’s 2013 all-time-high:
Why wouldn’t we expect a similar longer term bear market?
Different Times, Different Technologies
While the patterns have similarities, today’s market is running at a much faster pace. The technological advances of Blockchain, and Ethereum in particular, are creating a hyper-reactive environment where a larger bear market will only last a few months.
Overall, the fundamentals behind investing in Ethereum have never been stronger. This is a “blood in the streets” buying opportunity. Is this, $470, the bottom? Unclear. I don’t think we’ll dip under $420. After that, $324 is the number. I don’t see anything below that.
With that, I’m buying now. And I’ll continue to buy if it dips lower.
Zoom out
Looking back, that multi-year Bitcon bear market was truly brutal. Buying BTC @ $1000 would have been one of the worst investment decisions of your life. Even buying BTC @ $500 would have been a terrible decision. After all, the price went down to $200. Timing the bottom is very difficult.
When you zoom out, that period of time barely registers –
Now zoom out on the Ethereum chart. As I said earlier, this is still the 2nd inning. The people who bought over the past few months will be rewarded – if they can hold onto it. Same as it ever was.
Looking back in a year, sub-$500 Ethereum will be one of the best purchases of your life.
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Accumulate at levels under $500. Buy this dip.