The weekend started off promising, ETH surging back to $400, hanging around there on Saturday, before a big dip Sunday, reaching the lowest point in this latest bear market, $360 ETH.
Price movements since hitting that low of $360 have been encouraging.
As I’m writing this ETH is @ $412.
Calling The Bottom?
My theory is we’ll see more choppiness until the 2nd/3rd week of April.
This latest run could easily be another bull trap (especially seeing as how this correction was crypto-wide and not led by ETH) – with more pain coming later this week and next.
That said, I’m more confident than ever that ETH will not plunge below $324/$300.
Risk vs. Reward; Implied Odds in Poker
I think the Risk/Reward balance is off right now for ETH. The upside potential far outweighs the risk.
It reminds me of a concept called “implied odds” from poker. In poker, in order to understand whether to call or not, you need to factor in potential winnings.
If you only have a 10% chance of winning a pot, situationally it can still make sense to call 20% of the pot.
This is because you understand that if your hand does hit, future betting action justifies the call.
If this is poker, I’m calling.
It’s still risky, but the reward outweighs the risk.
Reminder – Never invest more in Crypto than you would be comfortable losing entirely. This is still early stage technology. This is why the reward is so massive.