OK, sorry for not posting Mom. It’s been a week… what did I miss?
Ethereum continued it’s rally, passing $700 before falling back into the high $500s earlier this week and continuing it’s climb upwards. Yesterday saw the price increase from the low $600s to the mid $600s, and today the rally is continuing as ETH looks to push back above $700.
All of this is good – in my opinion the retrace earlier this week is a healthy/positive sign that this rally is not over yet.
I think ETH is a definite buy right now. I’m even increasing my end of year projection for ETH. I think it ends the year above $3k.
I’ll explain why in a second.
Retail vs. Institutional Investing
I was recently part of a market research group for a hedge fund that is launching it’s own automated crypto trading intelligence program that works through machine learning. That’s quite a mouthful.
The founders of the company were hoping to get feedback on their advanced trading tool – unfortunately the panel of people that attended were pretty much non-traders.
They had us fill out sheets that would rank different ‘crypto factors’ that we think impact price. These included technical indicators like “RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands” – standard technical analysis metrics that traders use for traditional markets – along with other *new* factors like ‘Social Media Sentiment / Momentum’ and ‘Social Influencer Sentiment’ analysis.
Their main point was that this market is currently 90% retail – which is the complete opposite of traditional markets like stocks.
Hedge fund guys want to take advantage of this “highly emotional” retail market while it still exists, before the “smart” institutional money comes in.
The session ended up being really confrontational, with the hedge fund guys talking down to us and basically calling us “retail money” and a bunch of noobs.
OK, so where am I going with this?
In an immature, retail-heavy market like crypto is right now, traditional technical analysis doesn’t really work. This market is driven mostly by emotion and overall crypto sentiment. The social media factors are far more important in crypto than they are in about any other market.
This leads me to this chart from Google Trends –
This intersects well with my old life as an SEO / search guy. The chart above graphs the general popularity of a term over time. This chart – to me – is great evidence that a MASSIVE BULL RUN is coming when Ethereum finally does become “mainstream”
The chart below compares the popularity of ‘Ethereum’ vs ‘Bitcoin’
There is a lot of room for ETH to grow. And when the momentum does come, and the focus is on Ethereum, the price spike will be legendary.
ETH is a buy right now. Institutional money is about to flood the market. This is going to create another hype cycle. The market is so emotional right now (Retail) that as the institutional money (which bought this dip) pushes the price up, the retail noobs are going to kick it into hyper speed.
(Good example is my Mom who only asks if it’s time to buy as the price is shooting up)
All this is setting up for a massive ETH move later this year and into next.
I’ve never been more confident in Ethereum.