This is good.  After being pushed into the $460s yesterday morning by Bitcoin, ETH again took the lead later in the day, breaking down the wall at $500 and reaching a high of $530 this morning.

The trend on the ETH/BTC pattern below shows the continuation I was predicting as part of a “slingshot effect” on the USD price of ETH.

It’s hard to anticipate what happens next.  Crypto is so god damn volatile.  There’s a chance ETH – pardon my english – “gives no fucks” this weekend and busts past $600, $700.  We could also see a slow rise to $550 this weekend before falling back into the $400s next week before another push begins.

Regardless of what happens over the next few days – this latest price movement is incredibly encouraging to me.

Not going to lie – it feels good to be over the USD value of where I started this blog, $470.  I had called “blood in the streets” – which I think was still accurate even after another 23% was wiped off the ETH price as it bottomed at $360.

As far as the price of ETH I still this is still a great time to get in.  While you aren’t getting it at sub $400, zooming out on the USD chart it should be noted just how far things fell so quickly.

As I’ve said before, the same reasons that allow ETH to drop so quickly also allow ETH to rise this fast.

A more pessimistic POV will argue that this is just a huge bull trap – and we haven’t bottomed yet – but I think that possibility is 25% or less.  These latest movements are increasing my confidence in the entire situation.

Good News for Ethereum!!!

This all seems like “Good News for Ethereum.”  But it’s not really.  It’s just price speculation on a super volatile asset.

This latest ETH “crash” and incoming recovery really has nothing to do with the fundamentals of Ethereum.

Ethereum’s development progress continues with exciting news released almost every day.  It’s easy to get distracted by these crazy price movements, but that shouldn’t be my focus anymore.

I’m wrapping up my daily/short-term price movement updates.  My investment advice isn’t changing.  Buy ETH, BAT, ZRX, OMG.

For ETH my predictions are:

Summer – $1,500
End of Year – $3,000

I’ll still call out some larger movements / things I see.  Just expect much less of a focus on the rollercoaster price movements.

ETH blasted past $450 overnight, reaching a high of $477, before settling around $460 this afternoon.

While the last few days have seen ETH increase relative to Bitcoin, today’s rise was the opposite, with Bitcoin leading the charge with a huge spike overnight, briefly passing $8K.

Bitcoin’s rise reverberated across the entire crypto ecosystem, as you can see in the chart below from http://coinmarketcap.com

The chart below tracks the total crypto market cap (all coins combined).  Quite a spike overnight.

Zooming out this chart looks really encouraging to me.  This is an important chart overall to understand overall crypto market momentum.   Also note the volume spike at the very end – another positive indicator.

I think this latest BTC movement is setting ETH up for an even bigger move – a slingshot effect if you will.  Until the sharp BTC spike overnight, ETH started reversing it’s downtrend vs. BTC –

The chart below shows just how far ETH has fallen in relation to Bitcoin since February.  My opinion is that ETH will rise on the ETH/BTC ratio over the short term and beyond – and the chart below could very well show a bottoming out.

I think that ETH jumping to $460 – while going down on the ratio – helps create a slingshot effect.  The move this weekend could be surprising large.  After all, this is crypto.

I’m working on a few posts that will explain Blockchain and more as I described yesterday.  Might have something up later tonight.

Edit – 6pm ET

ETH is now leading the rally as it continues to push higher, now sitting at $480.  Note the big green candle in the ETH/BTC chart around 5pm ET today.

ETH continues to show positive price movement, breaking past $420 and currently sitting at $423.

This increases my confidence that the bottom was hit last week.

Regardless, I’d like to focus the rest of this week on the fundamental reasons for investing in ETH.  I think it will be helpful to lay out in detail why I think ETH is a good investment.

I’ll break down everything in more detail – for now I can confidently say that 95% of projects in the crypto space are bullshit.  I want to explain why the 5% – the legitimate portion – are about to change the world.

Ethereum is far different – and I’d argue far more interesting – than Bitcoin.  Over the next few days I’ll explain why.

After returning to $400 overnight ETH continues to climb higher, currently sitting at $412.

The hourly chart looks really encouraging – to me this provides support to the theory that the “sell side” running out of steam.  I think bears wanted one more push downwards but it may have been rejected.

This could very well be the “movement starting a few days before expected” scenario, where we did hit bottom last week.

I expect more turbulence tonight and tomorrow before a real breakout starts late in the week.

Edit – check out the ETH/BTC ratio, another bullish indicator

Hope you had a nice weekend.  ETH certainly did.  After ending the week hanging around $380, ETH broke $400, spiking temporarily to $430 early this morning – until a sharp reversal around 5am ET.

This movement is very encouraging to me, including the quick drop this morning.  I expect this to be one of the last – if not the last – “bull trap” before ETH has bottomed out and begins a new bull cycle.

I think Tuesday/Wednesday touches the relative low of this bear market, ~$360, with the potential to break below and very quickly reach the low 300s before a quick rejection.  Then recovery starts late in the week into a huge weekend.

There is a chance that ETH actually did hit bottom last week, I’d just be surprised.  That said, I still recommend buying at this level.  We’re close to bottom.

Another positive indicator is the ETH/BTC ratio which shows that this latest recovery effort was driven by ETH and not an overall crypto movement –

I think the ratio dips along with the price of ETH over the early part of this week, before a strong recovery in both ETH/USD and ETH/BTC.

I’m predicting April to be a big month for ETH.

ETH currently sits at $370 after bouncing this morning, almost touching the relative low of this bear run at $360.

It doesn’t feel like we’ve hit bottom yet, but I think it’s coming soon.

I feel that $360/$350 won’t hold, and as BTC breaks below $6000 we’ll see lower $300s ETH later next week.  That said – I’m not trading any of this at all.  After the tax man – trust me – wait 1 year to qualify for long-term capital gains.

One of my main theories about this latest crash was around the timing with US “Tax Day” and the situation it was putting a lot of people who had to report massive gains in 2017, and have massive losses so far in 2018.

Yesterday Bloomberg published an article talking about just how much this could be impacting this latest market pullback – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-05/crypto-rout-driven-by-25-billion-capital-gain-hit-tom-lee-says

US Tax Day is the 17th – I think the recovery starts a few days before.  Other people are predicting this recovery as well and usually movements start slightly before expected.

I think recovery is sharp, with $500 being broken and into the $600s before the end of the month.  I’ve also been predicting ETH to have a big summer, reaching towards – if not past – the ATH from January.  My end of year price is still ~$3K.

If this is bottom – or close to bottom – the upside here is ridiculous.

In the poker analogy, the “pot odds / implied odds” of putting money into this “ETH pot” are astronomical.  It’s easier to think through if you’re playing a zero-sum game like poker.

You have 100 chips.  Somebody pushes all-in.  You have a 25% chance of winning the pot.  Do you call?  That entirely depends on the pot size.  If the pot is only 100 chips – calling 100 chips with a 25% chance is dumb.  But if it was 1000 chips in the pot, it’s an easy call.

That’s my advice on how people should approach crypto investing – a high risk bet with a potential 100% loss outcome.

Disclaimer – I could be completely wrong  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
(but I still argue it’s a smart bet in a zero sum game)

After rising to $420 earlier this week, ETH dipped again under $400 on Wednesday, hitting a low of $366 overnight – close to this bear run’s low point.

Right now – with ETH sitting at $380 – it doesn’t feel like ETH hasn’t bottomed out – but I think it’s close and won’t last long.  Everything is still pointing to recovery starting in the 2nd/3rd week of April.

While I think ETH has a floor of $300, it’s important to think through why this might not hold.

The Case for Sub 300 ETH

Temporarily – If $300 gets tested over the next week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it break through into the $200s, setting off stop losses, but very briefly.

Long Term – If BTC slumps to $5K or below, ETH will dip under $300.  As I’ve written before, I think ETH will rise on the ratio over the next few months, so in the event BTC really ranks I think ETH performs better over that time.

This trend will be reversed in 2018.

The weekend started off promising, ETH surging back to $400, hanging around there on Saturday, before a big dip Sunday, reaching the lowest point in this latest bear market, $360 ETH.

Price movements since hitting that low of $360 have been encouraging.

As I’m writing this ETH is @ $412.

Calling The Bottom?

My theory is we’ll see more choppiness until the 2nd/3rd week of April.

This latest run could easily be another bull trap (especially seeing as how this correction was crypto-wide and not led by ETH) – with more pain coming later this week and next.

That said, I’m more confident than ever that ETH will not plunge below $324/$300.

Risk vs. Reward; Implied Odds in Poker

I think the Risk/Reward balance is off right now for ETH.  The upside potential far outweighs the risk.

It reminds me of a concept called “implied odds” from poker.  In poker, in order to understand whether to call or not, you need to factor in potential winnings.

If you only have a 10% chance of winning a pot, situationally it can still make sense to call 20% of the pot.

This is because you understand that if your hand does hit, future betting action justifies the call.

If this is poker, I’m calling.

It’s still risky, but the reward outweighs the risk.

Reminder – Never invest more in Crypto than you would be comfortable losing entirely.  This is still early stage technology.  This is why the reward is so massive.

The price of ETH continues to dip, bottoming out at $366 overnight.

Anybody holding ETH over the past 4 months has certainly gone on a rollercoaster of emotions.

The feeling of watching your money triple within weeks – only to “lose” it all over the last 2 months – is not a fun one.   If you’re looking at your Coinbase account value daily, you probably feel a bit queasy.

I know this feeling too well, and while Crypto has hardened my emotions over the past few years, that queasiness can be extremely hard to suppress.

Some people have it way worse – anybody who entered Crypto over the past 4 months are now deep in the red.  (Including the hedge funds)

These are testing times for anybody invested in Crypto.  There are two things I do to help manage my emotions in these times –

Stop Looking at Coinbase; This is a Long-term Play

Checking your account values can be extremely addicting – especially in moments of high price volatility.  One thing that helps me in moments like these is just not checking my exact account value.

If you’re looking at this as a long-term investment – which is my personal philosophy – then constantly checking your account value is not only unproductive but unhealthy.

Learning From Mistakes

Often this “queasiness” comes from feeling “overinvested” – or having too much at stake relative to your overall savings.

I’m definitely guilty of this.  It’s a mistake I’ve made a few times over the past 2 years, and each time I try to get better and learn from it.

Sometimes I get caught up in my own logic –

If I think ETH is a long-term play, why would I sell?  Isn’t that trying to time the market?

What I’ve learned is that logic gets overwritten when the paper profits you experience become significant enough to protect.

Taking Profit Along the Way

After making the mistake early in 2017 – watching the price dipped from $420 to $120, I did take some profit over the past few months.  Certainly not as much as I should have.

I have one friend who I gifted $400 worth of Crypto on January 12th, 2017.  That $400 turned into $30K on January 13th, 2018.  It’s now under $10k.

Did I think at that time – when it was worth $30K – it would go up to $100K?  Very strongly.  Do I still feel that?  Yes, equally as strong.

But at $30K – a definite milestone – I wish I had recommended profit taking.  I still believed it was going higher, and I still do.  But now the money was significant enough that it was time to take a little profit.

Cash Out Milestones & Moving Forward

Moving forward I’m implementing for myself, and recommending to others, ‘Cash Out Milestones’ – or dollar values where the money has become significant enough to protect / take profit.

I do my best to learn from my mistakes, but all I know for sure is that I’ll keep making them.  Just hopefully different ones.

My first few posts have been focusing on price movements / investing.  I’m not a day trader, and don’t recommend that to anyone.

Right now my investment strategy is pretty simple – buy and hold.  This is due to a strong belief we’ll see $2k+ ETH by end of year.

I will continue to update with posts related to price movements (I find it fascinating) but I think it’s important the focus of this blog be about the underlying technology and potential implications.

That’s truly what gets me excited.  This technology is revolutionary – but why?  What new use-cases does it allow for?

It’s my opinion that these new use-cases, which are still in development – are game changers to current business models.

This is the underlying reason why I think Blockchain, and specifically Ethereum, has such massive upside.

A whole new internet is about to be born – one that has better economics for end users than the current one.

Think Facebook.  Facebook owns all your content and is reselling your personal data – for nothing in return.  This is an outdated model.

The current internet is broken – and it’s about to evolve.

Why is Facebook’s model outdated?  Because the social networks of the future – instead of abusing you – will actually be paying you.

And right now, this new internet is being built on the Ethereum blockchain.

Much more on this to come.

---

As I’m posting this, ETH broke below $390 & BTC below $7500 – hold onto your butts.  Still think we’ll see a positive Friday/weekend.